BDS
Subway
Forensic Audit: Military Complicity & Geopolitical Risk Assessment of Subway IP LLC
1. Executive Intelligence Summary
1.1 Objective and Scope of Inquiry
This forensic audit was commissioned to evaluate the material, ideological, and structural complicity of Subway IP LLC (“Subway”) within the geopolitical framework of the Israeli occupation of Palestine. The objective is to determine the extent to which Subway’s leadership, ownership architecture, supply chain logistics, or operational footprint contributes to the sustainment of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the Israeli Ministry of Defense (IMOD), or the broader settlement enterprise.
This assessment adheres to a rigorous “Defense Logistics” framework. In this context, complicity is not merely defined by the direct provision of weaponry, but by the logistical sustainment of the systems that perpetuate occupation. This includes the provision of capital, the normalization of economic activity in occupied zones, dual-use technology transfers within the parent company’s portfolio, and supply chain integration with entities designated as complicit under international human rights standards. The audit distinguishes between “kinetic support” (direct military contracting) and “structural support” (financial flows and corporate legitimacy).
1.2 Primary Intelligence Findings
The forensic examination of Subway’s operational status, executed through late 2024 and early 2025, reveals a complex risk profile. Subway is characterized by a lack of direct operational presence in Israel—a rarity among major US fast-food conglomerates—juxtaposed with significant structural and supply chain entanglements via its parent company and primary beverage partner.
●Direct Operational Void (Tier 0 Kinetic Support): Subway does not currently operate franchises in Israel. The brand entered the market in 1992 but ceased operations in 2004 following the death of its master franchisee and subsequent business failures. Subsequent attempts to re-enter the market in 2009 and 2014 failed to materialize.1 Consequently, there is zero evidence of direct catering contracts, free meal provisions to the IDF, or branch locations within West Bank settlements or IDF bases at this time.1 This stands in stark contrast to competitors like McDonald’s, whose Israeli licensee has been documented donating thousands of meals to IDF soldiers.3
●Parent Company Dual-Use Risk (Roark Capital Group): Subway was acquired by Roark Capital Group in 2024.1 A deep-dive analysis of Roark’s portfolio reveals two critical vectors of complicity. First, Roark owns Inspire Brands, the parent company of Baskin-Robbins, which maintains an active and profitable franchise presence in Israel.5 Second, and more critically for a “Defense Logistics” assessment, Roark Capital’s portfolio includes Ground Penetrating Radar Systems (GPRS).5 While GPRS is a US-based infrastructure company, the technology it specializes in—subsurface mapping and concrete scanning—is a classic “dual-use” capability with high relevance to military engineering, tunnel detection, and base fortification. While no direct transfer of GPRS assets to the IDF is documented, the aggregation of Subway profits into a capital pool that sustains dual-use technology firms represents a latent risk vector.
●Supply Chain Integration (The PepsiCo Nexus): In March 2024, Subway signed a landmark 10-year agreement with PepsiCo to become its exclusive beverage provider in US restaurants starting January 1, 2025.7 This contract integrates Subway into the financial ecosystem of PepsiCo, the parent company of SodaStream.8 SodaStream is a primary target of human rights boycotts due to its historical operations in the illegal West Bank settlement of Mishor Adumim and its current role in the industrialization of the Negev (Naqab), a process linked to the displacement of Bedouin communities.9 By exclusively pouring PepsiCo products, Subway becomes a massive downstream revenue generator for a conglomerate deeply embedded in the “economic exploitation of occupied production.”
1.3 Strategic Classification
Based on the gathered intelligence, Subway is classified as Tier 3: Structural & Supply Chain Association.
●Tier 1 (Direct Kinetic): Not Applicable. No IMOD contracts.
●Tier 2 (Direct Sustainment): Not Applicable. No active branches feeding troops.
●Tier 3 (Structural/Supply Chain): Confirmed. Subway serves as a capital generator for Roark Capital (Dual-Use/Portfolio Complicity) and a major client for PepsiCo (SodaStream Complicity).
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2. Theoretical Framework: Defense Logistics in the Civilian Sector
To understand why a sandwich franchise is subject to a “Defense Logistics” audit, one must define the parameters of modern conflict economics. The Israeli occupation is not merely a military endeavor; it is an economic ecosystem. The sustainment of this ecosystem requires constant inflows of foreign capital, international brand legitimacy, and the normalization of commerce in contested zones.
2.1 The Kinetic vs. Structural Dichotomy
In forensic auditing, we distinguish between two types of support:
1.Kinetic Support: This refers to the tangible provision of goods and services that directly aid military operations. Examples include catering contracts for bases, the supply of tactical vehicles, or the construction of prison infrastructure.
2.Structural Support: This refers to the financial and reputational scaffolding that allows the kinetic machinery to function. This includes paying taxes to the state, operating in settlements (thereby legitimizing them), and integrating supply chains with occupation-profiteering entities.
Subway’s audit focuses almost entirely on Structural Support. Because the company has no boots on the ground (kinetic capability), the analysis must follow the money. Where do franchise fees go? Who owns the intellectual property? Who supplies the beverages?
2.2 The “Complicity Scale” Methodology
The user request calls for data to support a 0.0 to 10.0 scale. The methodology applied here aggregates risk factors:
●Ownership Risk: Is the parent company invested in defense or occupation industries?
●Operational Risk: Are there physical locations in settlements?
●Supply Chain Risk: Are vendors complicit?
●Governance Risk: Does the company demonstrate ethical negligence that suggests a high probability of future complicity?
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3. Equity-Level Forensic Analysis: The Roark Capital Nexus
The acquisition of Subway by Roark Capital Group in 2024 fundamentally altered the brand’s complicity profile.4 Prior to this, Subway was a family-owned entity. Now, it is a portfolio asset of a major private equity firm. In the world of private equity, capital is fungible. Profits from one asset (Subway) bolster the firm’s ability to invest in or sustain other assets. Therefore, a forensic audit of Subway is, by extension, an audit of Roark Capital.
3.1 Roark Capital Group: The Portfolio Architecture
Roark Capital specializes in franchise and multi-unit business models. However, an inspection of their complete portfolio reveals intersections with industries that have dual-use applications or direct footprints in the Israeli market.
3.1.1 Inspire Brands and the “Baskin-Robbins” Link
Roark Capital owns Inspire Brands, a holding company that controls Arby’s, Buffalo Wild Wings, Sonic, Dunkin’, and Baskin-Robbins.5
●The Connection: While Subway has no branches in Israel, Baskin-Robbins is active in the Israeli market.
●Financial Complicity: Revenue generated by Subway franchisees flows up to Roark Capital. Roark Capital manages the portfolio that includes Baskin-Robbins. Baskin-Robbins Israel pays corporate taxes to the Israeli government and operates within the Israeli economy, contributing to the normalization of international commerce in the state.
●Strategic Implication: By purchasing a franchise from Subway, an investor is entering a business relationship with a PE firm that actively maintains operations in Israel through its sister companies. This creates a “Portfolio Complicity” effect, where the “clean” status of one brand (Subway) is diluted by the “active” status of another (Baskin-Robbins).
3.1.2 The “Driven Brands” Sector
Roark owns Driven Brands, which includes automotive service chains like Maaco, Meineke, and CARSTAR.5
●Logistics Analysis: While these are civilian repair chains, the automotive maintenance sector is a key component of military logistics (Vehicle Maintenance & Repair – VMR).
●Investigation: Intelligence queries searched for “Driven Brands Israel contracts” and “military”. Results were negative for direct IDF contracts.10 However, the capability exists. Large automotive logistics firms often bid on government fleet maintenance contracts. The lack of current evidence is a “negative finding,” but the sector itself (automotive logistics) is adjacent to defense needs.
3.2 The “Dual-Use” Threat: Ground Penetrating Radar Systems (GPRS)
A critical, often overlooked finding in the Roark portfolio is the ownership of Ground Penetrating Radar Systems (GPRS).5
●Technology Assessment: GPRS specializes in subsurface scanning, concrete scanning, and utility mapping.
●Military Relevance (CIR 2 – Dual Use): Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is a “dual-use” technology of the highest order in the context of the Israel-Palestine conflict.
○Tunnel Warfare: The IDF relies heavily on advanced GPR and subsurface sensing technology to detect and destroy tunnels in Gaza and on the northern border.
○Base Construction: GPR is essential for mapping subterranean infrastructure during the construction of military bases and fortifications.
●Forensic Link: While GPRS (the company) appears to be a US-focused infrastructure service provider 5, its presence in the Roark portfolio alongside consumer brands like Subway creates a troubling juxtaposition. Roark Capital is profiting from civilian infrastructure scanning while holding the intellectual and capital resources to potentially pivot into defense-adjacent contracting.
●Risk Evaluation: There is no public evidence that Roark’s GPRS subsidiary currently contracts with the IMOD. However, the possession of this capability within the portfolio ranks higher on the risk scale than mere sandwich making. It represents a potential technological bridge to the security sector.
3.3 Roark’s Leadership and Ideological Orientation
The leadership of Roark Capital, specifically founder Neal Aronson, has a background in standard finance (Odyssey Partners, USFS).12
●Political Activity: Unlike some PE moguls who are vocal proponents of specific geopolitical causes, Roark’s leadership appears publicly focused on “purpose-driven” branding and economic growth.10
●“Purpose-Driven” Masking: Roark aggressively markets its brands as “purpose-driven.” This rhetorical strategy often serves to deflect from the granular realities of their investments. For instance, claiming to be “purpose-driven” while owning Baskin-Robbins (active in Israel) and failing to address labor violations in Subway franchises 14 suggests that “purpose” is a marketing construct, not an ethical guardrail.
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4. Operational Forensic Audit: The Israeli Market (1992–2025)
To satisfy the requirement regarding “Logistical Sustainment” (CIR 3), we must map the physical history of Subway in Israel. A logistics analyst does not rely on assumptions; we verify the existence of supply lines.
4.1 The Rise and Fall (1992–2004)
Subway was one of the first major US fast-food chains to enter Israel following the geopolitical shifts of the early 1990s.
●Expansion: Opening in 1992, the franchise expanded to 23 locations.2
●Collapse: The operations ceased entirely in 2004. The primary cause cited is the death of the master franchisee and subsequent mismanagement, coupled with a failure to adapt the menu to the kosher market and local palate.1
●Forensic Note: The closure predates the mainstream BDS movement (launched 2005). Thus, Subway’s absence is an economic accident, not a political boycott. This distinction is vital. A company that leaves because it lost money is liable to return if the economics improve. A company that leaves for ethical reasons is a lower risk. Subway is the former.
4.2 The “Ghost” Tenders (2009 & 2014)
Subway did not accept its 2004 failure as final.
●2009 Attempt: An investor named Gur Gal purchased franchise rights and planned 130 branches. This collapsed into arbitration and lawsuits without a single store opening.2
●2014 Attempt: Subway again announced a search for franchisees. This also failed to materialize.2
●Implication: These repeated attempts demonstrate a sustained intent to operate in Israel. Subway corporate wants to be in the market. The lack of presence is due to execution failure, not moral objection to the occupation.
4.3 The “Carmelit” False Positive: A Lesson in OSINT Hygiene
During the intelligence gathering phase, automated searches for “Subway” and “Israel” generated numerous hits related to the Carmelit Subway in Haifa.15
●Forensic Clarification: The Carmelit is a municipal underground funicular railway in Haifa, operated by the Haifa Municipality.16 It uses the word “Subway” in English translation to describe its function.
●Relevance: This is a False Positive. It has no corporate relation to Subway IP LLC.
●Action: All data points referencing “Carmelit” were segregated from the complicity audit. However, the existence of this homonym complicates automated monitoring of Subway’s status in Israel, requiring human analyst verification for all future intelligence alerts.
4.4 Current Operational Status (2025)
As of the current audit period (2025), Subway has zero active branches in Israel.1
●Logistical Sustainment Score: 0.0.
●Reasoning: You cannot feed soldiers or supply bases if you do not have kitchens. Unlike McDonald’s, which has a massive infrastructure capable of surging capacity for wartime donations, Subway has no logistical pipes in the country.
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5. Supply Chain Integration: The PepsiCo / SodaStream Nexus
While the operational audit (Section 4) yields a “null” result, the supply chain audit (CIR 4) reveals the most significant vector of complicity. Modern corporations are defined by their vendor ecosystem. In 2024/2025, Subway made a strategic decision that inextricably linked its global revenue stream to the Zionist settlement economy.
5.1 The 2025 PepsiCo Agreement
In March 2024, Subway announced a 10-year partnership with PepsiCo, replacing Coca-Cola as its exclusive beverage provider in US restaurants starting January 1, 2025.7
●Scope: This is a massive logistical shift, involving the replacement of fountain equipment and supply lines for tens of thousands of locations.
●Financial Magnitude: The deal is worth hundreds of millions, if not billions, in revenue for PepsiCo over the decade.
●The Complicity Link: PepsiCo is the parent company of SodaStream, acquired in 2018 for $3.2 billion.8
5.2 SodaStream: The Forensic Dossier
To understand why the PepsiCo contract matters, one must analyze the target: SodaStream.
●Historical Complicity (West Bank): For years, SodaStream’s primary manufacturing facility was located in the Mishor Adumim industrial zone, an illegal settlement in the occupied West Bank.9 The company benefited from tax breaks and lax environmental regulations inherent to the occupation economy.
●The “Prawer Plan” & Negev Displacement: Following intense international pressure, SodaStream moved its factory to Rahat in the Negev (Naqab). While framed as a “peace” move, this relocation is structurally linked to the Israeli government’s plans to industrialize the Negev. This often involves the displacement of unrecognized Bedouin villages and the confiscation of ancestral lands to build industrial parks (like Idan HaNegev) where the factory sits.
●Direct Integration: The Subway/PepsiCo announcement explicitly lists “SodaStream” as part of the portfolio being leveraged.7 Furthermore, PepsiCo is actively rolling out “SodaStream Professional” dispensers for institutional clients.17 If Subway integrates these machines into its “Store of the Future” concept, it will be directly marketing a brand synonymous with the displacement of Palestinians.
5.3 Agricultural Sourcing and “Blind” Supply Chains
CIR 3 asks about logistical sustainment. A hidden aspect of this is food sourcing.
●The Mehadrin/Agrexco Risk: Israel’s largest agricultural exporters, Mehadrin and the former Agrexco, operate extensively in the Jordan Valley, exporting dates and vegetables grown on occupied land.18
●Subway’s Sourcing Model: Subway utilizes Independent Purchasing Cooperatives (IPCs).19 These are franchisee-owned entities that negotiate bulk contracts.
●The European Vector: In Europe, Mehadrin supplies major supermarkets and distributors.18 It is highly probable, given the opacity of the global food web, that Subway’s European IPCs purchase tomatoes, avocados, or peppers from aggregators who source from Mehadrin.
●Conclusion: While we lack a “smoking gun” contract between Subway and Mehadrin, the Risk of Blind Sourcing is rated High. Subway’s “regional sourcing” policy 19 lacks the robust forensic exclusions necessary to guarantee that settlement produce does not enter its supply chain.
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6. Corporate Governance & Human Rights Posture
A company’s domestic behavior often predicts its behavior in conflict zones. If a company tolerates exploitation at home, it rarely champions human rights abroad.
6.1 Domestic Labor Violations as a Risk Indicator
Recent lawsuits against Subway franchises in the United States paint a picture of systemic governance failure.
●Wage Theft & Exploitation: In 2025, the US Department of Labor sanctioned multiple Subway franchises in Massachusetts for willful violations of the Fair Labor Standards Act, including stealing wages from immigrant workers.14
●Racial Discrimination: The EEOC sued Subway franchises in North Carolina for creating a hostile work environment and firing employees based on race.20
●Relevance to Defense Logistics: These violations indicate a weak central governance structure. Subway Corporate (Roark) exercises loose control over franchisee ethics. If Subway were to re-enter Israel, this “hands-off” governance model suggests they would not enforce the “McDonald’s Clause” (political neutrality) effectively. They would likely allow franchisees to operate in settlements or offer discriminatory soldier discounts, just as they allowed franchisees to exploit workers in Boston.
6.2 The Franchise Agreement (MFA) Analysis
Subway’s Master Franchise Agreements (MFAs) are the legal instruments of control.21
●The “McDonald’s Clause”: Some MFAs contain compliance clauses.
●Enforcement Reality: The high number of lawsuits and the decentralized nature of the IPCs suggests that Subway prioritizes royalty collection over ethical enforcement. This lack of rigorous oversight is a Geopolitical Risk Factor. It means the brand is vulnerable to “capture” by a politically motivated master franchisee in Israel, should one be appointed.
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7. Comparative Market Analysis: The Strategic Terrain
To calibrate the “0.0 to 10.0” scale, Subway must be benchmarked against its peers.
Table 1: Comparative Complicity Matrix (QSR Sector)
| Feature
|
Subway
|
McDonald’s
|
Burger King
|
Domino’s Pizza
|
| Israel Presence
|
None (Closed 2004) 1
|
Active (Corp Owned) 3
|
Active 23
|
Active 24
|
| Kinetic Support
|
0
|
High (Meal Donations)
|
Med (Meal Donations)
|
Med (Meal Donations)
|
| Settlement Ops
|
0
|
Documented
|
Documented
|
Documented
|
| Parent Co.
|
Roark Capital
|
Public (NYSE: MCD)
|
RBI (Public)
|
Public (NYSE: DPZ)
|
| Supply Chain
|
PepsiCo (SodaStream)
|
Coca-Cola
|
Coca-Cola
|
Coca-Cola
|
| BDS Status
|
Not Listed 1
|
Targeted
|
Targeted
|
Targeted
|
| Dual-Use Risk
|
Roark owns GPRS
|
None
|
None
|
None
|
Strategic Insight:
●McDonald’s is a Tier 2 entity (Direct Logistical Sustainment via meal donations).
●Subway is a Tier 3 entity. It is cleaner on the kinetic front (no meals for soldiers) but has a unique Tier 3 risk via Roark’s ownership of GPRS (Dual-Use Tech) which competitors lack. McDonald’s sells burgers; Roark sells burgers and subterranean radar services (via separate portfolio companies).
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8. Future Geopolitical Risk: The 2025 Expansion Plan
The current “clean” operational status of Subway in Israel is unstable. The company is in aggressive expansion mode.
8.1 The 10,000 Store Directive
In October 2024, Subway announced a strategy to open 10,000 new restaurants globally.25
●Mechanism: Signing Master Franchise Agreements (MFAs) with large, multi-unit operators.
●Target Regions: While Latin America and Europe are mentioned, the scale of this expansion necessitates entry into high-GDP markets. Israel, with its high density of fast-food consumption and strong economy, is a prime target for re-entry.
8.2 The Re-Entry Scenario
Given Roark Capital’s ownership of Baskin-Robbins (which operates successfully in Israel), it is highly probable that Roark will leverage Inspire Brands’ existing infrastructure or contacts in the region to facilitate Subway’s return.
●Scenario: A new Master Franchise Agreement is signed for “Subway Israel” by 2026.
●Prediction: Based on the “Driven Brands” and “Inspire Brands” ethos (profit-driven, politically agnostic), a new Subway Israel would likely not be restricted from opening in settlements (e.g., Ariel or Ma’ale Adumim) or offering discounts to security forces. The “hands-off” governance model identified in Section 6 makes this a near certainty.
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9. Conclusion and Classification
9.1 Synthesis of Findings
Subway IP LLC presents a paradoxical profile for the Defense Logistics Analyst.
●Operationally, it is a ghost. It has no physical footprint to audit in the occupied territories.
●Structurally, it is a pillar of support. Its profits sustain Roark Capital (owner of dual-use radar tech and active Israeli franchises), and its expenses sustain PepsiCo (owner of SodaStream).
The absence of direct military contracting (CIR 1) and tactical supply (CIR 2) prevents a high-level complicity score. However, the confirmed Supply Chain Integration (CIR 4) with PepsiCo/SodaStream acts as a permanent, structural link to the occupation economy.
9.2 Final Classification
●Primary Classification: Indirect / Structural Complicity.
●Secondary Risk: Dual-Use Portfolio Adjacency (Roark/GPRS).
9.3 Recommendations for Future Monitoring
To maintain an accurate complicity score, the following indicators must be monitored:
1.PepsiCo Rollout (2025): Confirm if “SodaStream Professional” units are installed in Subway locations. This moves the link from “financial” to “visible brand association.”
2.Roark Capital Tenders: Monitor Roark’s GPRS subsidiary for any international contracts in the Middle East region.
3.Master Franchise Alerts: Set intelligence triggers for “Subway Israel” + “Franchise Rights” to detect a fourth re-entry attempt.
This audit concludes that while Subway does not currently feed the IDF, its financial organs are nourished by the same economic systems that sustain the occupation.
Report compiled by Defense Logistics Analyst | November 2025
Works cited
